Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Pre Spring Training Top Fantasy Players 100 to 81

100.  Pedro Alvarez-  When I made this list I had the Pirates third base masher at number 100, then came the reports that Alvarez is already 15 pounds overweight.  This could turn into good news or bad news for people targeting Alvarez on draft day.  I've seen Alvarez coming in on draft boards anywhere from 75 to 130,  if owners in your league buy into Alvarez as having a Pablo Sandoval type falloff you can get him lower than 100.  Spring Training will show us a lot on how in shape Alvarez will be for the season. 

99.  Jimmy Rollins-  Jimmy Rollins got old, and got old very quickly on all of us.  But the scarcity of the shortstop position in fantasy keeps him in our top 100.  Last year Rollins struggled with injuries and only played 88 games.  He batted .243 with only 8 home runs and 17 stolen bases.  If he can stay healthy he will be fantasy relevant, but there are less riskier players. 

98. Trevor Cahill-  Another young pitcher who is very underrated by many experts.  In ESPN's mock draft he went 163th overall in the 17th round, which is crazy for someone who finished 9th overall in the AL Cy Young race.  As a 22 year old last year Cahill won 18 games while having a 2.97 Era in 30 starts.  The Athletics quietly improved their team, especially their bullpen and we expect Cahill to put up numbers similar to last year playing in that big ballpark.  

97.  Matt Garza-  A lot of people think the move to Wrigley Field will hurt Garza's statistics, I feel like it could be the opposite.  I always viewed Garza as an explosive type like Carlos Zambrano, but with better talent.  For the past 3 seasons he has sported an ERA under 4 and started 30 games every season.  Expect his ERA to lower now that he moves out of the AL East and starts to face pitchers in the 9 hole.  Don't expect a ton of wins out of Garza, but expect good numbers.

96.  Ricky Romero-  Romero is a youngster that is very underrated in most drafts.  In ESPN's most reason expert mock draft they didn't have Romero going until the 19th round, which is ridiculous.  I have him ranked at 96 because around the 8th to the 12th round you can get some very good and reliable pitchers for relatively cheap, Romero is in this group.  Last year he went 14 and 9 and had a 3.73 ERA while striking out 173 batters.  If he continues to progress and work on his walk ratio like last year, he will easily be a top 100 player.

95.  Josh Beckett-  Could this guy get any worse than last season?  The answer is no.  95 could be too high for Beckett and he will go much lower in drafts, but he is worth the risk if he returns to form.  The Red Sox will be very good this year and will give Beckett the opportunity to win a lot of games, especially since Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz have assumed the 1-2 role for the Red Sox.  Beckett is a low risk high reward which is uncommon for his career.  

94.  Tommy Hanson-  In his first full season in the majors Hanson impressed with a 3.33 ERA in 34 starts.  The only thing that worries me is it was the first time Hanson has eclipsed the 200 inning mark, and that he only won 10 games last year.  Now Billy Wagner is gone for the Braves, and I'd like to see how Craig Kimbrel handles spring training before I bump him up my rankings.  In our post spring training rankings he could be considerably higher.

93.  Aubrey Huff-  It's tough to rank Huff this high but it's very tough to discount his season for the World Series champions.  Huff hit .290 with 35 doubles, 26 home runs, and 86 rbi's while coming in 7th in the MVP race.  I would not expect him to duplicate these numbers but if you can draft him expecting .275/ 20 home runs/ and 80 rbis you will get a bargain for this overlooked veteran. 

92.  Alexei Ramirez-  We've been waiting for Alexei to breakout after coming in second 2nd in the rookie of the year voting in 2008.  Unfortunately, he hasn't gotten any better so far.  That still keeps him in the second tier shortstops and in our top 100.  Ramirez will be 29 next year, and with the addition of Adam Dunn to the lineup he could be looking at a little statistically boost.  He will be around the same price as Derek Jeter and Jimmy Rollins but should have more upside if things go well.

91.  Corey Hart-  After struggling in 2009 having a .260 average and 12 home runs, he rebounded with an all star season.  He batted .283 with 31 home runs and 102 rbis.  Hart won't be a .300 hitter but if you can endure the rough average expect the power and rbis.  He will be drafted from the 7th to 10th round and it all depends which type of outfielder you are in the market for. 

90.  Andrew Bailey-  Bailey is one of the most underrated reliever in the game, especially in fantasy.  He plays for the Athletics who don't win a ton of games, but when they do they are usually close.  They don't score a ton of runs to blow out teams which usually gives Bailey the opportunities to close them down.  In his two big league seasons he has an Era of 1.70 and gets a strikeout an inning, don't be afraid to draft this Oakland pitcher.

89. Chris Young-  After coming off a season where he hit .212 a lot of fantasy owners lost hope for Chris Young.  That's when he had a very good all star season.  Young still only hit .257, his career high, but he smashed 27 home runs and stole 28 bases.  If your team is loaded with players who will hit .300, draft young for a nice power outfielder who will steal some bases. 

88. Derek Jeter- Another shortstop who going real old, real quick.  Jeter was still an all star, and won a questionable gold glove, but he is no longer a fantasy elite.  Jeter's numbers dropped across the board batting .270 with 10 home runs and 18 stolen bases.  The position scarcity keeps Jeter in the top 7 or 8 fantasy shortstops, and we even expect a little rebound in Jeter's stats.

87. Alex Rios- This may be a little low for a player who had as good as season as Rios did last year, but there are so many quality outfielders, it's difficult to have Rios over some safer infielders who put up similar numbers.  Last year he batted .284 and had 21 home runs and 34 steals, the steals were a career high.  But this is only one season after he hit .247 and his stats could go either way.  If you can draft Rios expecting .275/ 20 home runs/ and 25 steals go ahead and take him. 

86.  Aaron Hill-  Hill has quickly become one of the best slugging 2nd basemen in the big leagues.  He did hit .205 last year but has a combine 62 home runs in the past two seasons.  Hill was a little nicked up last season and only played in 138 games.  The average doesn't worry as much as it would with players like Chris Young, because Hill was a career .280 hitter before last season.  

85.  Vernon Wells-  After having his first good season in 4 years, Wells gets a change of scenery being traded to the Angels.  I think this will be a great move for the Angels and Wells.  Before last season it looked like Wells was just going to play out his career in Toronto, and never be on a good team.  This gives him extra motivation to impress his new teammates.  Wells is usually overlooked in drafts so you should be able to snag him pretty late.

84.  Aramis Ramirez-  Ramirez has really struggled the past few years staying healthy, but third base has quickly become a position that doesn't have the greatest fantasy options.  Ramirez still has power which is obvious with his 25 home runs in 124 games, but he only hit .241.  We expect his average to rebound because he is a career .282 hitter.  Don't expect getting 160 games out of him, but don't be afraid to take him for his power.

83.  Martin Prado-  Prado is a .300 hitter who has added some pop to his bat over the last two years.  Last season he had 40 doubles and 15 home runs while hitting .307 in 140 games.  He has position versatility, and has 2nd and 3rd base eligibility.  He's a great pick to play at 2nd base for your fantasy team, and he may also gain first base eligibility this year. 

82. Kendry Morales-  A freak injury while celebrating a walk off home run with his teammates ruined Morales season.  In 51 games he hit .290 with 11 home runs and 39 rbis.  He was coming off a season where he was 5th in the AL MVP voting.  Morales is supposedly fully healthy, but I'd like to see it before I spend a pick in the 1st four rounds on him.  He is one player who will jump up a ton in the rankings after a healthy season.

81. Billy Butler-  Butler did not progress as much as everyone expected last year, but he still had a very good year.  His home run, doubles, and rbi's decreased, but his batting average rose to .318.  He will be 25 next year, and I still believe Butler will turn his doubles into home runs.  It looks like he will continue to be a .300 hitter.  He will always be underrated playing in Kansas City and will continue to be a good value.










1 comment:

  1. I think you jump on Morales in round 4-5. He's going to give value, and it's not a chronic condition but a freak injury. For sure way ahead of Butler. Everyone is also missing the point on Aramis that he was hurt for a while and played through it, and that killed the AVG. Great value in a rebound year.

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