When someone asks me what my number one strategy going into a fantasy draft, the answer is quick and simple, wait on pitching. A lot of people tell me, "Oh man, my pitching staff is going to dominate and carry me to the championship." Well if you used most of your first 10 round picks you should have a good pitching staff, but your lineup will be struggling to catch up all year. When you need to replace position players, it seems to be tougher every year to find a viable replacement. When Justin Morneau got hurt last year, did you really enjoy playing Daric Barton the rest of the way? There are only 30 starting 1st basemen in the major leagues, limiting your options. But, there are 5 starting pitchers on every big league team. I'd much rather be choosing from 150 options, not including all the pitchers who come in and out of the starting rotation from the minors.
Not only are their more starting pitchers, I feel like there are a lot more pitchers I would want to anchor my fantasy team. Whereas I can say only about 7 first basemen I would feel comfortable matching up against other teams first basemen, most of which will go in the first two rounds. But looking at starting pitcher I could have quite a pitchers anchor my staff and feel comfortable. I consider any pitcher who has numbers around 15 wins, strikes out around 190 batters and has an ERA under 3.50 as someone worth drafting as an ace. Going by my guidelines here's a list of starters who fit those criteria in 2010.
1. Roy Halladay 21 Wins 2.44 ERA 219 K's
2. Felix Hernandez 13 Wins 2.27 ERA 232 K's
3. Tim Lincecum 16 Wins 3.43 ERA 231 K's
4. Adam Wainwright Out For Season
5. Cliff Lee 12 Wins 3.18 ERA 185 K's
6. Clayton Kershaw 13 Wins 2.91 ERA 212 K's
7. C.C. Sabathia 21 Wins 3.18 ERA 197 K's
8. Jon Lester 19 Wins 3.25 ERA 225 K's
9. Justin Verlander 18 Wins 3.37 ERA 219 K's
10. Ubaldo Jimenez 19 Wins 2.88 ERA 214 K's
11. Chris Carpenter16 Wins 3.22 ERA 179 K's
12. Cole Hamels 12 Wins 3.06 ERA 211 K's
13. Mat Latos 14 Wins 2.92 ERA 189 K's
14. Roy Oswalt 13 Wins 2.76 ERA 193 K's
15. Jonathan Sanchez 13 Wins 3.07 ERA 205 K's
16. David Price 19 Wins 2.72 ERA 188 K's
17. Jered Weaver 13 Wins 3.01 ERA 233 K's
18. Matt Cain 13 Wins 3.14 ERA 177 K's
That's a pretty interesting list and has a lot of depth too it. Obviously in a perfect world you don't want Jonathan Sanchez, but in some mock drafts I've seen has multiple pitchers on this list going in the 10th or 11th round. If I loaded up my position players for the 1st 6 or 7 rounds, I wouldn't mind going the next three rounds drafting pitchers like Cole Hamels, Jered Weaver, Roy Oswalt, Jonathan Sanchez, Matt Cain, and Mat Latos. Some positional players who compare in those rounds are players like Drew Stubbs, Stephen Drew, Kelly Johnson, Billy Butler. Those players could be good players, but I wouldn't compare them to the quality of Hamels, Weaver, Oswalt, and Sanchez.
Another thing that makes you want to wait even longer for pitchers is how late you can get quality starters, and possible breakout stars. How many people waited and stole Francisco Liriano and Clay Buchholz late in drafts and watched them carry you to your fantasy championship? The truth is, you can get those steals every year without overpaying. I've already started targeting pitchers late in drafts this year, and think there are plenty of quality arms this year. I'll definitely be eyeing arms late like Daniel Hudson, Shaun Marcum, Matt Garza, Ricky Romero, Trevor Cahill, Wade Davis, and Jeremy Hellickson to fill out my pitching needs. So when you head into your draft remember one thing, wait on pitching.
In my mocks, I've taken hitting in the top 6 rounds, and it's crazy how shallow hitting is this year. There are a ton of upside-type pitchers. Good post.
ReplyDeleteGlad you enjoyed the post Brian. I've used this strategy for years and have not been disappointed, but this was the first year I've put the stats to my strategy.
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