Thursday, March 3, 2011

First Basemen Fantasy Overview

First Basemen Overview:  This is one of the deepest positions I've seen in a while.  I would feel comfortable having any of the first four tiers 1st basemen as my starter.  That is 14 quality 1st base eligible players to pick from on draft day.  It would be nice to score on a top 1st baseman, but if the chance doesn't arise and you focus in on other positions don't panic.  Players like Kevin Youkilis, Adam Dunn, Billy Butler, and Kendry Morales are all viable options.

Tier 1
Albert Pujols

Tier 2
Miguel Cabrera
Adrian Gonzalez
Joey Votto
Prince Fielder
Ryan Howard
Mark Teixeira

Tier 3
Kevin Youkilis
Justin Morneau
Buster Posey (eligible)

Tier 4
Paul Konerko
Adam Dunn (eligible)
Billy Butler
Kendry Morales

Tier 5
Aubrey Huff
Adam Laroche
Carlos Lee  (eligible)
Michael Cuddyer
Derrek Lee
Carlos Pena
James Loney
Freddie Freeman

Breakout:  Adam Dunn
As established as Dunn is, it is tough to think of him as a breakout candidate, but the way Dunn is looked at in fantasy circles he is exactly that.  When you think of Adam Dunn most people think strikeouts and a low batting average.  But, people forget to look at his positives.  In his nine full seasons, he has averaged over 100 walks a season and has a .902 career OPS.  He is a lock for close to 40 home runs and 100 rbi's, and that is worth the .260 average.  Moving to primary DH will allow him to focus on batting, and the protection in Chicago's lineup will help him.  Look for a big year out of Dunn for a mid round price.

Sleeper:  Justin Smoak
Smoak was so highly regarded last year that he was the main prize in the Cliff Lee to Texas trade.  Even Smoak moved to Seattle he continued to struggle at the plate and was sent down.  The Mariners recalled the youngster in the last two weeks of the season and he came back much improved.  He batted .340 with three homers.  He will start the season locked in as the Mariners first basemen and if you are playing in a deep league don't be afraid to take him late.  

Bust:  Paul Konerko 
Konerko has been one of the most consistent player in the past decade for the White Sox, but he had his career year last year.  He hit .312 with 39 home runs and 111 rbi's.  Those are close to MVP numbers, but they aren't likely to keep up, and that is where most fantasy owners are drafting him.  A lot of owners have been drafting Konerko right behind the top seven basemen.  I believe that the risk involved with Konerko is too high for the overall depth at the position this year.

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