Injury Update March 19th

Giant's closer Brian Wilson sprained an oblique muscle today, and now opening day is in doubt for the World Series Champ.  He said he should be ready, but the Giant's will be ultra careful with their all star closer because these injuries can linger.  Sergio Romo or Jeremy Affeldt would be in line for some saves. 

Late Round Targets

You usually don't win your fantasy league in the first few rounds of the draft.  It usually comes with the players you add off the waiver wire and late in drafts that puts you over the hump.  Here are some need to know players who will help you greatly in deep drafts. 

Catcher

J.P. Arencbia-  It looks like Arencbia will be looking at a 60-40 split in catching this season.  That should make him valuable enough to draft, especially in daily leagues.

1st Base

Mitch Moreland-  Moreland batted .462 in the world series and looks to improve his all around game this season.  It looks like Moreland will get most of the at bats at first this year.

Brandon Allen-  Allen should man first base for the Dbacks.  His average won't help your team, but he could provide 20 home runs for very cheap late in the draft.

Justin Smoak-  Smoak was the main get in the Cliff Lee trade and if he fulfills his potential will help the Mariners and your fantasy team.

2nd Base

Sean Rodriguez-  Rodriguez disappointed a lot of people last year after his big spring training, but this is the year I like him.  The Rays got rid of Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, and Carl Crawford, and Rodriguez can play 2nd base and the outfield.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka- The Japanese import should bat near the top of the lineup for the Twins.  It's hard not to like anyone batting in front of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.

Shortstop

Reid Brignac- Brignac was the main reason Jason Bartlett was traded in the offseason.  This season he should get full playing time and produce for a late shortstop pick.

Jed Lowrie-  If Lowrie ever wins the starting shortstop job from Marco Scutaro he will be a steal late in drafts.

Yuniesky Betancourt-  Betancourt hit 16 home runs last season, which is big production for this shortstop class.  He moves to the Brewers high powered offense.

3rd Base

Miguel Tejada- Tejada still has some pop in that bat and should hit close to .275 with 15 homers for the World Series Champs.  He should be eligible at shortstop and third base.

Utility

Jim Thome-  In daily leagues with an alert owner, Thome is a steal.  He won't play versus lefties, but he kills righties still.  He had 25 homers in only 276 at bats last season. 

Outfield

Mike Morse-  Morse has lit up spring training and it looks like he has secured the Nationals left field job.  He could put up major power numbers for someone late in the draft.

Rajai Davis-  People don't realize that Davis stole 50 bases last year.  When you need steals target him late in the draft.

Peter Bourjos- Bourjos will man center field for the Angels.  If he can put it all together he could be a poor man's five tool prospect. 

Cameron Maybin-  Maybin and Andrew Miller were traded from Detroit to Florida for Miguel Cabrera.  And now neither of them plays for the Marlins.  Both are still young and Maybin might have just needed a change of scenery to San Diego. 

Pitching

Mike Minor-  Minor didn't pitch great last year in his call up.  But, he showed his potential by striking out more than a batter an inning.  

James McDonald- Last September McDonald had 15 scoreless innings in back to back starts.  Most people still don't know his name.

Michael Pineda-  The Mariners top prospect should open the season as the Mariners number 5 starter.  He won't win a ton of games but his ratios should help pitching in spacious Safeco Park.  

Kyle Drabek-  Drabek was the prize the Blue Jays got for Roy Halladay.  He will open in the rotation this season.  If you play him when he doesn't pitch against the Yankees and Red Sox he should produce.

Ivan Nova-  Nova just had an outing where he had a no hitter through six innings before being pulled.  Hopefully you and not the other owners saw this performance.  

Wade Davis-  In the second half last season Davis had a 6 and 1 record with a 3.28 ERA.  Draft him and expect numbers like Matt Garza's last season.  

Rick Porcello-  Porcello is a veteran at a young age of 22.  He had flashes of brilliance last season, and if he puts it altogether he could be an ace at the end of your draft.  

Brian Fuentes-  This isn't really that I like Fuentes, but I do not think Andrew Bailey will stay healthy.  He's already had arm problems this spring and Fuentes should get the bulk of the opportunities for the shockingly competitive Athletics.   

Top Ten Rookies to Know in your Fantasy Draft

These are not the top prospects in baseball, but the one's you need to know for your fantasy draft.  Whether these players start in the big leagues or the minors, at some point of 2011 they will help you win your fantasy leagues.  

1.  Jeremy Hellickson-  Hellickson got the August Call up and impressed enough for the Ray's to be confident enough to  trade Matt Garza in the offseason.  Last season in 36.1 innings Hellickson went 4-0 with a 3.47 Era.  He struck out almost 1 batter an inning and should have a Phil Hughes like year.

2.  Aroldis Chapman- Where ever Chapman pitches he will still be valuable.  Last year he struck out 19 batters in 13.1 innings in the big leagues.  Numbers like that will make him valuable even as a middle reliever.  In some leagues I've even drafted him instead of some lower level closers.  Draft Aroldis and hope he becomes a starter or a closer this year.

3.  Freddie Freeman-  After tearing up Triple A last year, Freeman is the Braves starting first basemen.  I look for Freeman to put up James Loney type numbers with more upside.  He will probably bat sixth in the potent Braves lineup and should be able to drive in a ton of runs.  

4.  Domonic Brown-  Brown would probably be number 1 on this list if he didn't break his hand a couple weeks ago.  He was in line for the starting right field job, but after the injury it opens up for competition.  If Ben Francisco impresses in Brown's absence it could trickle down for the whole season.  He is still worth drafting and stashing him for a while.  

5.  Jesus Montero-  Montero is rated as my number 1 prospect in baseball.  Catcher is one of the most important positions in baseball, and the Yankees could have a stud for the next ten years.  The 21 year old ripped up Triple A last year and I feel he had a legitimate shot to win the catching job over Russell Martin this spring training.  Unfortunately he has not hit this spring training, and Martin has stayed healthy.  He will either begin as the Yankees backup or start in Triple A.  

6.  Michael Pineda-  The Mariners have come out and said that Pineda is the favorite for the Mariner's number 5 starter.  Last year between Double and Triple A Pineda had a 3.36 Era and 154 K's in only 139 innings.  He is a power pitcher and playing in spacious Safeco Field will definitely help his ERA and Whip. 

 

7.  Kyle Drabek-  Drabek was the main prize that came over for Roy Halladay and he impressed in Double A last season.  He had a 2.94 ERA in 162 innings.  Drabek can hit 96 or 97 on the gun but he is not really a strikeout pitcher.  He should be the Blue Jays 4th or 5th starter to begin the season.  Drabek won't always be a great play but should put up good numbers against the weaker AL teams.  

8.  Mike Moustakas-  I was really excited for Moustakas this spring training, until I heard that the Royals are likely to leave him in Triple A for half the season to save an arbitration year.  This may be one of the reasons why Royal fans are sick of their team.  Moustakas would definitely be the Royals best option at third base, but they don't have intentions to win right now.  I am still stashing him until his June call up.  

9.  Brandon Belt-  Belt emerged last year as one of the best prospects in baseball.  Last year in 136 games he batted .352 with 43 doubles, 10 triples, and 23 home runs.  He had a .455 obp and 112's while stealing 22 bases.  I don't see the Giants being able to keep him in the minors very long and moving Huff to the outfield to make room for Belt might make sense sooner rather than later.

10.  Dustin Ackley-  Ackley didn't hit very well in his first season in the minors, but we credit that to him trying to learn a new position at second base.  He could either start the year in Triple A or as the starting 2nd basemen as the Mariners and if you are in a deep league you should keep an eye on him.  He was a great player for North Carolina and we don't think his hitting skills eroded some quickly.

Starting Pitcher Overview

Starting Pitcher Overview:  Starting Pitching is loaded this year, from top to bottom.  As I wrote in our draft tip: why to wait on pitching, there are three tiers of pitching I wouldn't mind having as my ace.  In the article I make the point that you can wait until the 4th to 6th rounds, and still end up with players like Jon Lester or Clayton Kershaw.  If you want to read more check it out on the page on the right labeled.  "Draft Tip: Why to Wait on Pitching"

Tier 1

Roy Halladay

Felix Hernandez

Tier 2

Tim Lincecum

Cliff Lee

Jon Lester

Clayton Kershaw

C.C Sabathia

Justin Verlander

Tier 3

Ubaldo Jimenez

David Price

Zack Greinke

Josh Johnson

Chris Carpenter

Cole Hamels

Mat Latos

Tommy Hanson

Tier 4

Dan Haren

Jered Weaver

Roy Oswalt

Mat Latos

Francisco Liriano

Johnathan Sanchez

Matt Cain

Clay Buchholz

Tier 5

Yovani Gallardo

Shaun Marcum

Chad Billingsley

Gio Gonzalez

Daniel Hudson

Max Scherzer

Brett Anderson

John Danks

Trevor Cahill

Jake Peavy

Ricky Romero

C.J. Wilson

Brian Matusz

Matt Garza

Best of the Rest

Wandy Rodriguez

Tim Hudson

Brandon Morrow

Ricky Nolasco

Josh Beckett

John Lackey

Jeremy Hellickson

Javier Vazquez

Jorge De La Rosa

Madison Bumgarner

Ervin Santana

Ian Kennedy

Rick Porcello

Johnny Cueto

Edinson Volquez

Breakouts:  Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw, Daniel Hudson, Shaun Marcum.  I figured that since there are so many pitchers to choose from, it would be more helpful for me to pick a few for each topic.  You might think it is weird that Jon Lester and Clayton Kershaw could be my top breakout pitchers because they are so established.  But, Lester and Kershaw and my CY Young picks for this season over the likes of Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez.  Daniel Hudson and Shaun Marcum are two lower end breakout stars.  Marcum moves to the NL from the tough AL East and slots in as the Brewers third starter.  Hudson moved to the NL last season from the White Sox and went 7 and 1 after his move to Arizona.  

Sleepers: Rick Porcello, Jeremy Hellickson, John Lackey, Madison Bumgarner.  These are four pitchers that you should be able to get outside of the top 30 pitchers, and should really help your fantasy rotation.  At only 22 years old Porcello has pitched over 330 innings in his big league career.  His third season should be a breakout.  Hellickson was a rookie last season who threw 36 innings last season in the bigs.  The Ray's were so confident in his ability that they traded Matt Garza in the offseason.  Bumgarner is also a youngster who was dominant in the offseason for the World Series champions.  And John Lackey struggled last season with the Red Sox with a 4.40 ERA and 14 wins.  Look for the Sox offense to help with the win total, and Lackey's Era to come back down to below 4.  

Busts: Zack Greinke and Carlos Zambrano.  Greinke's numbers will definitely improve after moving to Milwaukee from Kansas City.  But, some people are drafting him as someone who will win 20 games and an Era under 3.  I would put Greinke in Tier 3 starting pitchers and draft accordingly.  Zambrano is someone who is gaining steam after going 8 and 0 from August to October.  But we all know how volatile Zambrano can be, and I'd much have a safer starter than the Cub's star.

Note:  After writing this Zack Greinke has been shut down for 4 to 6 weeks with a fractured rib.  This will obviously drop his average drafted position, and depending on your league he could be worth drafting cheap.

Injury Update March 8th

Zack Greinke will miss the first three starts of the season because he fractured ribs playing basketball this offseason.  Hopefully you don't already have him on your team.

Outfield Overview

Outfield Overview:  In most of my leagues, I make sure I have an outfielder in the first four rounds.  There are about 15 solid outfielders who could go in the first four or five rounds, and I wouldn't mind having any on my team as my top outfielder.  Outfield is also the deepest position in baseball if you have a league that requires 3 and not 5 at the position.  Players to target late in this year's outfield class are Nick Swisher, Austin Jackson, Desmond Jennings, and Jose Tabata. 

Tier 1

Carlos Gonzalez

Carl Crawford

Ryan Braun

Josh Hamilton

Tier 2

Matt Holliday

Nelson Cruz

Andrew McCutchen 

Jayson Werth

Shin-Shoo Choo

Jose Bautista

Justin Upton

Ichiro

Jason Heyward

Jacoby Ellsbury

Andre Ethier

Matt Kemp

Tier 3

Mike Stanton

Alex Rios

Shane Victorino

Chris Young

Hunter Pence

Corey Hart

B.J. Upton

Curtis Granderson 

Tier 4

Aubrey Huff

Vernon Wells

Nick Swisher

Delmon Young

Grady Sizemore

Jay Bruce

Jason Bay

Tier 5

Nick Markakis

Michael Cuddyer

Adam Jones

Michael Bourn

Colby Rasmus

Carlos Beltran

Austin Jackson

Domonic Brown

Breakout: Mike Stanton

Stanton sometimes struggled to make contact in his rookie season, but when he did he put up big numbers.  In only 359 at bats Stanton batted .259 with over 20 homers and doubles while driving in 59 runs.  In his first full season you could expect over 30 home runs and 100 rbi's.  He should struggle to bat over .280 this early in his career, so draft him accordingly.

Sleeper: Curtis Granderson

People gave Granderson a lot of flak for struggling in his first season in the Bronx, but it was kind of expected.  It's tough for a playing moving to the bright lights of New York and he should rebound this year.  I'm not expecting Granderson to hit .247 again and for his stolen base total to be like last season's 12.  Granderson is a player who could easily hit 30 home runs with 20 stolen bases that you can get late in mixed draft.

Bust: J.D. Drew

The usually consistent Drew really showed his age last season.  Not only did he have his normal struggles with injuries, but his numbers slipped when he was in the lineup.  The emergence of Ryan Kalish, and  Mike Cameron still in Boston gives the Red Sox another option if Drew struggles.  Even in the deepest of leagues I'd stay away from Drew.  

Third Base Overview

Third Base Overview:  When I look at this year's class of third basemen, nothing really excites me from it.  Everyone has Longoria as a first round pick, but after owning him last year, I don't think I would draft him there.  I won't target players like Wright and Longoria in the first round because there are solid players in the next few rounds.  Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis, and Mark Reynolds are players who can produce like Longoria and Wright without the first round price.  If you miss on the top few tiers, Casey McGehee should be as solid as ever.

Tier 1

Evan Longoria

Alex Rodriguez

David Wright

Ryan Zimmerman

Tier 2

Adrian Beltre

Jose Bautista

Tier 3

Mark Reynolds

Martin Prado (eligible)

Aramis Ramirez

Tier 4

Casey McGehee

Pedro Alvarez

Pablo Sandoval

Tier 5

Placido Polanco

Scott Rolen

Chase Headley

Chipper Jones

Miguel Tejada

Chris Johnson

Mike Moustakas

Brent Morel

Breakout:  Mike Moustakas 

This is a name I really thought everyone would be hearing about this spring.  Last year between Double A and Triple A Moustakas batted .322 with 36 home runs, 41 doubles, and 124 rbi's in only 118 games.  Moustakas is in a battle for the Royals third base job with Mike Aviles, but I don't see the Royals not giving him a chance.  At the least he will get the call up in June.  Take a flier on Moustakas late and he could have an Evan Longoria rookie year type impact.

Sleeper:   Mark Reynolds

How quick people forget.  Coming into last season Reynolds was a player who had just mashed 44 home runs while stealing 24 bases.  Even with his low average he was looked at as a third round pick.  Now after a season where he hit .198 and struggled with injuries he will be lucky to crack the first 10 rounds in drafts.  People don't realize how much injuries hurt Reynolds season, even though he hit 32 home runs in only 499 at bats.  He now moves to a very potent Orioles lineup and 40 home runs and 100 rbi's is not out of the question.    I'd still take Reynolds over the Pedro Alvarez, Martin Prado, and Aramis Ramirez' of the world.

Bust: Jose Bautista

I hated to put Bautista as my bust, because it seems like a lot of people don't believe in the late bloomer, but some people are looking at him as a top 5 third basemen.  His 54 home runs and 124 rbi's were amazing last year, but he only had 113 homers in his entire career before last season.    He could produce another season with 40 home runs, but to take him over a player who is as consistent as Kevin Youkilis is pretty crazy.  Owners will spend their fourth round pick on Bautista, I just won't be one of them.